The U.S. auto market has rebounded from the low figures of the 2009 pre-bailout crisis in spectacular fashion. It’s a trend that is not going to fade away any time soon: after Edmunds.com, automotive analyst firm Polk also predicts that new car sales will continue to rise in the States.For 2013, Polk forecasts new vehicle registrations in the U.S. to increase by 6.6 percent over 2012 to 15.3 million units, helped by the improving state of the economy and the manufacturers’ increasing capacity in their local plants.
Key to this increase will be the drastic increase of new and redesigned vehicles. For the year that has just begun, automakers plan 43 new vehicle launches, which represents an impressive 50 percent increase compared to 2012, and no less than 60 redesigns.
"Polk expects continued recovery in the industry in 2013 and 2014, a positive sign for the U.S. economy", said Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting for the Americas at Polk. "The auto sector is likely to continue to be one of the key sectors that lead the U.S. economic recovery”, he added.
In the next 18-24 months, the large pickup segment, which has been losing ground for the past five years, is expected to grow, says Polk, since GM, Ford and Toyota are expected to launch brand new or redesigned products.
The automotive analyst also anticipates that the current market leader, the mid-size sedans, which have a market share of 18.5 percent, will continue to grow and rule the market in the years to come.
Lead Polk analyst Tom Libby commented: "Recent redesigns of nearly every vehicle in the mid-size segment are forcing more competition and continued growth. The current array of options for consumers in the market for a new mid-sized vehicle makes it a great time to buy a new car."
CAFE requirements and new models will also lead to an increase in the compact and sub-compact segments. Hybrid sales, on the other hand, will rise only slightly from their current 2.9 percent share mainly due to their high prices and the increasing number of conventionally-powered models that can achieve similar mileage at a much lower sticker price.
Last, but not least, Polk expects a return to 16 million units, a figure last seen in 2007, by 2015 – unless, it notes, “something unusual” happens…
By Andrew Tsaousis
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